Major League Soccer (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 23:30 · Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution
Likeliest: Philadelphia Union win · 65%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Philadelphia Union65%62%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
New England Revolution16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Philadelphia Union
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Charlotte FC (H)2-2
- Oct 15 · at Chicago Fire (A)3-1
- Oct 10 · v Real Salt Lake (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Orlando City SC (H)4-2
- Sep 20 · at Sporting Kansas City (A)4-3
New England Revolution
WinLossLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Chicago Fire (H)1-0
- Oct 14 · at FC Cincinnati (A)3-2
- Oct 10 · v Seattle Sounders FC (H)0-3
- Sep 27 · at Real Salt Lake (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v Orlando City SC (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Philadelphia Union | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.