Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Thu, Aug 13 · 23:00 · Philadelphia Union vs Santos Laguna
Likeliest: Philadelphia Union win · 54%
A 26% draw. The market says 20%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Philadelphia Union54%65%−11
OursMarket
Draw26%20%+6
OursMarket
Santos Laguna20%15%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 68% | −23 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 58% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 85% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 35% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 80% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 81% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Philadelphia Union
WinWinWinLossWin
- Aug 9 · v Club Necaxa (H)3-1
- Aug 7 · at Cruz Azul (A)0-1
- Aug 1 · v Atlanta United (H)3-2
- Jul 25 · v Seattle Sounders FC (H)1-0
- Jul 22 · v New York Red Bulls (H)3-1
Santos Laguna
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Aug 10 · at Chicago Fire (A)1-3
- Aug 6 · at New York City FC (A)0-2
- Aug 2 · at Club América (A)0-3
- Jul 26 · v Atlas FC (H)0-1
- Jul 19 · at CF Monterrey (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Philadelphia Union | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.