USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 11 · 02:00 · Phoenix Rising FC vs Las Vegas Lights
Likeliest: Phoenix Rising FC win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Phoenix Rising FC51%50%0
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Las Vegas Lights24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Phoenix Rising FC
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 4 · at New Mexico United (A)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Oakland Roots SC (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v El Paso Locomotive FC (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · v FC Tulsa (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Monterey Bay FC (A)1-1
Las Vegas Lights
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 4 · v San Antonio FC (H)1-0
- Oct 1 · at Sacramento Republic FC (A)2-3
- Sep 20 · v Hartford Athletic (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Orange County SC (A)2-0
- Sep 6 · v New Mexico United (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Phoenix Rising FC | Las Vegas Lights |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-3 | 5-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.