USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 02:00 · Phoenix Rising FC vs Lexington SC
Likeliest: Phoenix Rising FC win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Phoenix Rising FC38%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Lexington SC37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 2.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Phoenix Rising FC
LossLossLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · at Orange County SC (A)3-1
- Oct 11 · v Las Vegas Lights (H)3-2
- Oct 4 · at New Mexico United (A)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Oakland Roots SC (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v El Paso Locomotive FC (H)1-3
Lexington SC
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Las Vegas Lights (A)5-3
- Oct 9 · v FC Tulsa (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · v El Paso Locomotive FC (H)3-1
- Sep 27 · at Monterey Bay FC (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Orange County SC (H)6-0
| Last 10 games | Phoenix Rising FC | Lexington SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.