Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 10:15 · Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia
Likeliest: Cracovia win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Piast Gliwice34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Cracovia37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Piast Gliwice
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at Górnik Zabrze (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Widzew Łódź (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Pogoń Szczecin (H)1-2
- Sep 14 · at Radomiak Radom (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v GKS Katowice (H)3-0
Cracovia
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Legia Warszawa (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Zagłębie Lubin (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · at GKS Katowice (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · at Wisła Płock (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Piast Gliwice | Cracovia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.