Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sun, Sep 20 · 10:15 · Piast Gliwice vs Pogoń Szczecin
Likeliest: Piast Gliwice win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Piast Gliwice38%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Pogoń Szczecin35%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Piast Gliwice
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 14 · at Radomiak Radom (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v GKS Katowice (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · at Motor Lublin (A)2-0
- Aug 22 · v Legia Warszawa (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Wieczysta Kraków (H)3-4
Pogoń Szczecin
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Sep 13 · v Wieczysta Kraków (H)2-0
- Sep 7 · v Wisła Płock (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Zagłębie Lubin (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · v Wisła Kraków (H)2-2
- Aug 8 · v Motor Lublin (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Piast Gliwice | Pogoń Szczecin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.