Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sun, Oct 11 · 12:45 · Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź
Likeliest: Widzew Łódź win · 38%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Piast Gliwice34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Widzew Łódź38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Piast Gliwice
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · v Pogoń Szczecin (H)1-2
- Sep 14 · at Radomiak Radom (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v GKS Katowice (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · at Motor Lublin (A)2-0
- Aug 22 · v Legia Warszawa (H)1-1
Widzew Łódź
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 18 · v Wieczysta Kraków (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Legia Warszawa (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Radomiak Radom (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Lech Poznań (H)2-3
- Aug 22 · at Śląsk Wrocław (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | Piast Gliwice | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 1-6-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.