Serie B (Italy) · Sun, Aug 30 · 19:00 · Pisa vs Catanzaro
Likeliest: Pisa win · 38%
A 37% away win. The market says 21%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pisa38%50%−13
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Catanzaro37%21%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 41% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 45% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 79% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 50% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 71% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pisa
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Aug 23 · v Padova (H)0-1
- Aug 17 · v Empoli (H)1-1
- May 23 · at Lazio (A)1-2
- May 17 · v Napoli (H)0-3
- May 10 · at Cremonese (A)0-3
Catanzaro
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Aug 21 · at L.R. Vicenza (A)2-3
- Aug 15 · v Südtirol (H)2-2
- May 29 · at Monza (A)2-0
- May 24 · v Monza (H)0-2
- May 20 · at Palermo (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Pisa | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-1-9 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-8 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.