Coppa Italia (Italy) · Mon, Aug 17 · 16:00 · Pisa vs Empoli
Likeliest: Pisa win · 43%
A 33% away win. The market says 23%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pisa43%50%−7
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Empoli33%23%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 46% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 77% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 50% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 69% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pisa
LossLossLossLossLoss
- May 23 · at Lazio (A)1-2
- May 17 · v Napoli (H)0-3
- May 10 · at Cremonese (A)0-3
- May 1 · v Lecce (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at Parma (A)0-1
Empoli
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- May 8 · at Monza (A)2-2
- May 1 · v Avellino (H)1-0
- Apr 25 · at Venezia (A)0-2
- Apr 19 · v Virtus Entella (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Calcio Padova (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Pisa | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-0-9 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-8 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.