Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Apr 19 · 16:00 · Pisa vs Genoa
Likeliest: Genoa win · 43%
We make it 48% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pisa32%30%+2
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−5
OursMarket
Genoa43%39%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 39% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 46% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 43% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pisa
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Apr 10 · at Roma (A)0-3
- Apr 5 · v Torino (H)0-1
- Mar 22 · at Como (A)0-5
- Mar 15 · v Cagliari (H)3-1
- Mar 7 · at Juventus (A)0-4
Genoa
WinWinLossLossWin
- Apr 12 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
- Apr 6 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Mar 20 · v Udinese (H)0-2
- Mar 15 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-0
- Mar 8 · v Roma (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Pisa | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-8 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.