Serie A (Italy) · Fri, May 1 · 18:45 · Pisa vs Lecce
Likeliest: Pisa win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 28%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pisa38%28%+10
OursMarket
Draw29%32%−4
OursMarket
Lecce33%40%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 37% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 60% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 72% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 68% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 41% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pisa
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Apr 25 · at Parma (A)0-1
- Apr 19 · v Genoa (H)1-2
- Apr 10 · at Roma (A)0-3
- Apr 5 · v Torino (H)0-1
- Mar 22 · at Como (A)0-5
Lecce
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Apr 25 · at Hellas Verona (A)0-0
- Apr 20 · v Fiorentina (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Bologna (A)0-2
- Apr 6 · v Atalanta (H)0-3
- Mar 22 · at Roma (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Pisa | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-0-9 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-8 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.