Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 17 · 10:30 · Pisa vs Napoli
Likeliest: Napoli win · 57%
A 21% home win. The market says 12%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pisa21%12%+8
OursMarket
Draw23%20%+3
OursMarket
Napoli57%68%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 45% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | 32% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 88% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 15% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pisa
LossLossLossLossLoss
- May 10 · at Cremonese (A)0-3
- May 1 · v Lecce (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at Parma (A)0-1
- Apr 19 · v Genoa (H)1-2
- Apr 10 · at Roma (A)0-3
Napoli
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- May 11 · v Bologna (H)2-3
- May 2 · at Como (A)0-0
- Apr 24 · v Cremonese (H)4-0
- Apr 18 · v Lazio (H)0-2
- Apr 12 · at Parma (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Pisa | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-0-9 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-8 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.