Serie B (Italy) · Sun, Aug 23 · 17:00 · Pisa vs Padova
Likeliest: Padova win · 40%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pisa36%54%−17
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Padova40%19%+21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 43% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 48% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 81% | −21 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 46% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 74% | −27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pisa
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Aug 17 · v Empoli (H)1-1
- May 23 · at Lazio (A)1-2
- May 17 · v Napoli (H)0-3
- May 10 · at Cremonese (A)0-3
- May 1 · v Lecce (H)1-2
Padova
Loss
- Aug 15 · at Udinese (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Pisa | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-1-9 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | — |
| Both teams scored | 40% | — |
| Clean sheets | 0% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-7 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.