Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Dec 8 · 14:00 · Pisa vs Parma
Likeliest: Pisa win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 39%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pisa48%39%+9
OursMarket
Draw28%32%−4
OursMarket
Parma24%30%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 39% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 61% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 68% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 57% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pisa
DrawDrawWinDrawLoss
- Nov 30 · v Inter (H)0-2
- Nov 24 · at Sassuolo (A)2-2
- Nov 7 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
- Nov 2 · at Torino (A)2-2
- Oct 30 · v Lazio (H)0-0
Parma
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Dec 4 · at Bologna (A)1-2
- Nov 29 · v Udinese (H)0-2
- Nov 23 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-1
- Nov 8 · v Milan (H)2-2
- Nov 2 · v Bologna (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Pisa | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.