Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Jan 31 · 14:00 · Pisa vs Sassuolo
Likeliest: Pisa win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 32%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pisa46%32%+13
OursMarket
Draw25%31%−6
OursMarket
Sassuolo30%37%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 43% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 63% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 68% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 69% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 46% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pisa
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Jan 23 · at Inter (A)2-6
- Jan 16 · v Atalanta (H)1-1
- Jan 10 · at Udinese (A)2-2
- Jan 6 · v Como (H)0-3
- Jan 3 · at Genoa (A)1-1
Sassuolo
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Jan 25 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
- Jan 17 · at Napoli (A)0-1
- Jan 10 · at Roma (A)0-2
- Jan 6 · v Juventus (H)0-3
- Jan 3 · v Parma (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Pisa | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.