Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Apr 5 · 16:00 · Pisa vs Torino
Likeliest: Pisa win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 30%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pisa42%30%+12
OursMarket
Draw26%32%−5
OursMarket
Torino32%39%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 42% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 61% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 70% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 68% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 43% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pisa
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Mar 22 · at Como (A)0-5
- Mar 15 · v Cagliari (H)3-1
- Mar 7 · at Juventus (A)0-4
- Mar 2 · v Bologna (H)0-1
- Feb 23 · at Fiorentina (A)0-1
Torino
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Mar 21 · at AC Milan (A)2-3
- Mar 13 · v Parma (H)4-1
- Mar 6 · at Napoli (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Lazio (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · at Genoa (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Pisa | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.