Serie B (Italy) · Fri, Sep 11 · 19:00 · Pisa vs Virtus Entella
Likeliest: Pisa win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pisa54%54%0
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Virtus Entella17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 45% | 44% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pisa
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 6 · at Juve Stabia (A)3-0
- Aug 30 · v Catanzaro (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · v Padova (H)0-1
- Aug 17 · v Empoli (H)1-1
- May 23 · at Lazio (A)1-2
Virtus Entella
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 6 · v L.R. Vicenza (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Cesena (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Südtirol (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-2
- May 8 · v Carrarese (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Pisa | Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.