USL Championship (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 23:00 · Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion FC
Likeliest: Pittsburgh Riverhounds win · 53%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pittsburgh Riverhounds53%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Birmingham Legion FC20%22%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Rhode Island FC (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Hartford Athletic (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Orange County SC (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Detroit City FC (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Loudoun United FC (H)1-0
Birmingham Legion FC
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 18 · v Loudoun United FC (H)0-0
- Oct 14 · at SC Jacksonville (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · at SC Jacksonville (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Detroit City FC (A)0-1
- Sep 23 · v Brooklyn FC (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Birmingham Legion FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.