USL Championship (USA) · Sat, Oct 10 · 23:00 · Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Hartford Athletic
Likeliest: Pittsburgh Riverhounds win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pittsburgh Riverhounds46%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Hartford Athletic24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 27 · at Orange County SC (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Detroit City FC (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Loudoun United FC (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Miami FC (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v FC Tampa Bay Rowdies (H)0-0
Hartford Athletic
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 25 · v Louisville City FC (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Las Vegas Lights (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · v SC Jacksonville (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · v FC Tampa Bay Rowdies (H)3-1
- Sep 5 · at Detroit City FC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Hartford Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.