Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · PK-35 vs SJK Akatemia
Likeliest: PK-35 win · 71%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
PK-3571%76%−4
OursMarket
Draw19%16%+3
OursMarket
SJK Akatemia10%8%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 65% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 92% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 24% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 90% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
PK-35
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 9 · at FC Haka (A)0-3
- Sep 26 · at Jippo Joensuu (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v KTP (H)0-3
- Sep 11 · at KäPa (A)4-1
- Sep 4 · v EIF (H)0-0
SJK Akatemia
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v KTP (H)4-3
- Sep 26 · at EIF (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v KäPa (H)2-3
- Sep 12 · at MP (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v JäPS (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | PK-35 | SJK Akatemia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-2 | 1-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.