Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Wed, Oct 14 · 18:00 · Platense Reserve vs Defensa y Justicia Reserve
Likeliest: Defensa y Justicia Reserve win · 45%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Platense Reserve26%30%−4
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Defensa y Justicia Reserve45%43%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 41% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Platense Reserve
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 7 · at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve (A)2-2
- Sep 30 · v Huracán Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 24 · at Argentinos Juniors Reserve (A)0-2
- Sep 16 · at Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Boca Juniors Reserve (H)0-2
Defensa y Justicia Reserve
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 6 · v Quilmes Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 29 · at Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve (A)0-2
- Sep 23 · v Tigre Reserve (H)2-1
- Sep 15 · v Central Cordoba Reserve (H)2-3
- Sep 9 · at San Martin Reserve (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Platense Reserve | Defensa y Justicia Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-3-3 | 0-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.