Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 11 · 20:00 · Platense vs Argentinos Juniors
Likeliest: Argentinos Juniors win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 48% for both teams to score. The market says 43%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Platense26%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw34%32%+3
OursMarket
Argentinos Juniors40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 34% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 43% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Platense
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 5 · at Vélez Sarsfield (A)2-2
- Oct 2 · v Estudiantes de La Plata (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Newell's Old Boys (H)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Fluminense (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)1-2
Argentinos Juniors
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 3 · v Tigre (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Rosario Central (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima (H)1-1
- Sep 7 · at Barracas Central (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Aldosivi (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Platense | Argentinos Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.