Copa Libertadores (South America) · Wed, Aug 12 · 22:00 · Platense vs Coquimbo Unido
Likeliest: Platense win · 40%
A 28% away win. The market says 20%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Platense40%50%−9
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Coquimbo Unido28%20%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 35% | 42% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 80% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 71% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Platense
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Aug 9 · at CA Independiente (A)1-0
- Aug 3 · v Talleres (H)0-4
- Jul 30 · at Instituto De Córdoba (A)1-2
- Jul 25 · v Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe (H)2-2
- May 28 · at Corinthians (A)2-0
Coquimbo Unido
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Aug 8 · v Deportes La Serena (H)1-1
- Aug 1 · at Palestino (A)1-2
- Jun 13 · v O'Higgins (H)0-0
- May 31 · at Deportes Limache (A)3-2
- May 27 · at Nacional (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Platense | Coquimbo Unido |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 2-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.