Copa Argentina (Argentina) · Fri, Oct 2 · 00:15 · Platense vs Estudiantes de La Plata
Likeliest: Estudiantes de La Plata win · 43%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Platense21%25%−4
OursMarket
Draw37%33%+4
OursMarket
Estudiantes de La Plata43%42%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 34% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 41% | 39% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 75% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 37% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Platense
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 20 · v Newell's Old Boys (H)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Fluminense (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)1-2
- Sep 8 · at Fluminense (A)0-2
- Sep 4 · v Deportivo Riestra (H)1-1
Estudiantes de La Plata
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 22 · at Lanús (A)1-2
- Sep 17 · at Corinthians (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Platense (H)2-1
- Sep 10 · v Corinthians (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Vélez Sarsfield (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Platense | Estudiantes de La Plata |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-6-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.