Copa Libertadores (South America) · Tue, Sep 15 · 22:00 · Platense vs Fluminense
Likeliest: Fluminense win · 34%
A tight one: we make it 34% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Platense34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+2
OursMarket
Fluminense34%35%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 50% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Platense
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 12 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)1-2
- Sep 8 · at Fluminense (A)0-2
- Sep 4 · v Deportivo Riestra (H)1-1
- Aug 31 · at Defensa y Justicia (A)0-1
- Aug 28 · v Instituto De Córdoba (H)1-1
Fluminense
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · v Platense (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · v Vasco da Gama (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Athletico (A)3-3
- Aug 22 · v Remo (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Platense | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-6-3 | 0-7-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.