Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:30 · Platense vs Lanús
Likeliest: Lanús win · 40%
We make it 46% for both teams to score. The market says 41%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Platense25%29%−4
OursMarket
Draw35%32%+3
OursMarket
Lanús40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 33% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 41% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Platense
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · v Argentinos Juniors (H)1-1
- Oct 5 · at Vélez Sarsfield (A)2-2
- Oct 2 · v Estudiantes de La Plata (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Newell's Old Boys (H)0-1
- Sep 15 · v Fluminense (H)2-1
Lanús
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 12 · v Vélez Sarsfield (H)2-0
- Oct 3 · at Newell's Old Boys (A)0-0
- Sep 22 · v Estudiantes de La Plata (H)2-1
- Sep 14 · at Deportivo Riestra (A)3-0
- Sep 6 · v Defensa y Justicia (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Platense | Lanús |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.