League One (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:30 · Plymouth Argyle vs AFC Wimbledon
Likeliest: Plymouth Argyle win · 64%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Plymouth Argyle64%62%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
AFC Wimbledon15%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Plymouth Argyle
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 6 · at Newport County (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Leyton Orient (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Burton Albion (H)0-1
- Sep 22 · v Crystal Palace U21 (H)5-1
- Sep 19 · at Blackpool (A)4-2
AFC Wimbledon
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 6 · v Barnet (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Cambridge United (A)1-1
- Sep 17 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)1-0
- Sep 7 · at Bromley (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Plymouth Argyle | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.