League One (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Plymouth Argyle vs Barnsley
Likeliest: Plymouth Argyle win · 59%
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Plymouth Argyle59%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Barnsley19%20%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 63% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Plymouth Argyle
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Sep 5 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)3-2
- Sep 1 · at Leicester City (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · v Bradford City (H)2-0
- Aug 25 · v Coventry City (H)2-4
- Aug 22 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)1-1
Barnsley
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 5 · v Stevenage (H)1-5
- Sep 2 · v Blackpool (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Leyton Orient (A)3-1
- Aug 25 · v Crewe Alexandra (H)3-2
- Aug 22 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Plymouth Argyle | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.