League One (England) · Sat, Aug 29 · 14:00 · Plymouth Argyle vs Bradford City
Likeliest: Plymouth Argyle win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 43%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Plymouth Argyle52%43%+9
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Bradford City24%30%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 57% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 59% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Plymouth Argyle
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Aug 25 · v Coventry City (H)2-4
- Aug 22 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Stockport County (H)1-3
- Aug 10 · v Exeter City (H)2-0
- May 2 · at Northampton Town (A)3-2
Bradford City
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Aug 26 · v Burnley (H)0-0
- Aug 20 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-0
- Aug 15 · v Peterborough United (H)2-0
- Aug 8 · v Rochdale (H)2-0
- May 14 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Plymouth Argyle | Bradford City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.