League One (England) · Sat, Sep 26 · 14:00 · Plymouth Argyle vs Burton Albion
Likeliest: Plymouth Argyle win · 60%
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Plymouth Argyle60%58%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Burton Albion18%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Plymouth Argyle
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 22 · v Crystal Palace U21 (H)5-1
- Sep 19 · at Blackpool (A)4-2
- Sep 12 · v Barnsley (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)3-2
- Sep 1 · at Leicester City (A)0-2
Burton Albion
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 22 · v Nottingham Forest U21 (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Mansfield Town (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Oxford United (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Cambridge United (H)2-2
- Sep 2 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Plymouth Argyle | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.