League One (England) · Sat, Feb 21 · 12:30 · Plymouth Argyle vs Cardiff City
Likeliest: Plymouth Argyle win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 32%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Plymouth Argyle41%32%+9
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Cardiff City35%41%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 59% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 68% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 43% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Plymouth Argyle
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Feb 17 · at Leyton Orient (A)3-1
- Feb 14 · at Blackpool (A)4-0
- Feb 7 · v Lincoln City (H)1-4
- Jan 31 · at Stockport County (A)1-2
- Jan 27 · v Mansfield Town (H)1-1
Cardiff City
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Feb 17 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)4-1
- Feb 14 · v Luton Town (H)3-1
- Feb 7 · at Rotherham United (A)3-0
- Jan 31 · at Burton Albion (A)2-2
- Jan 27 · v Barnsley (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Plymouth Argyle | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.