EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Aug 25 · 18:45 · Plymouth Argyle vs Coventry City
Likeliest: Plymouth Argyle win · 43%
We make it 57% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Plymouth Argyle43%21%+22
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
Coventry City31%55%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 45% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 79% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 28% | +31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Plymouth Argyle
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Aug 22 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Stockport County (H)1-3
- Aug 10 · v Exeter City (H)2-0
- May 2 · at Northampton Town (A)3-2
- Apr 25 · v Port Vale (H)2-1
Coventry City
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 21 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
- May 2 · at Watford (A)4-0
- Apr 26 · v Wrexham (H)3-1
- Apr 21 · v Portsmouth (H)5-1
- Apr 17 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Plymouth Argyle | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.