EFL Cup (England) · Mon, Aug 10 · 19:00 · Plymouth Argyle vs Exeter City
Likeliest: Plymouth Argyle win · 65%
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Plymouth Argyle65%64%+1
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Exeter City15%16%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 62% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 80% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Plymouth Argyle
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- May 2 · at Northampton Town (A)3-2
- Apr 25 · v Port Vale (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Bradford City (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)3-1
- Apr 11 · v Exeter City (H)2-2
Exeter City
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- May 2 · v Bradford City (H)1-2
- Apr 25 · at Burton Albion (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v Stockport County (H)3-3
- Apr 11 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)2-2
- Apr 6 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Plymouth Argyle | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.