League One (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Plymouth Argyle vs Huddersfield Town
Likeliest: Huddersfield Town win · 39%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Plymouth Argyle33%36%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Huddersfield Town39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Plymouth Argyle
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 10 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)2-1
- Oct 6 · at Newport County (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Leyton Orient (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Burton Albion (H)0-1
- Sep 22 · v Crystal Palace U21 (H)5-1
Huddersfield Town
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-2
- Oct 6 · v Rochdale (H)5-0
- Oct 3 · at Burton Albion (A)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Bromley (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Mansfield Town (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Plymouth Argyle | Huddersfield Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.