League One (England) · Sat, Jan 24 · 12:30 · Plymouth Argyle vs Luton Town
Likeliest: Plymouth Argyle win · 40%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Plymouth Argyle40%34%+6
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−2
OursMarket
Luton Town34%38%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 49% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 62% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 66% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 48% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Plymouth Argyle
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Jan 17 · at Peterborough United (A)1-0
- Jan 4 · v Burton Albion (H)3-0
- Jan 1 · at Stevenage (A)1-1
- Dec 29 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)1-1
- Dec 26 · v Reading (H)1-4
Luton Town
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Jan 17 · v Lincoln City (H)2-2
- Jan 10 · v Stevenage (H)2-1
- Jan 1 · at Exeter City (A)0-1
- Dec 29 · v Leyton Orient (H)3-0
- Dec 26 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Plymouth Argyle | Luton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.