League One (England) · Sat, Aug 15 · 14:00 · Plymouth Argyle vs Stockport County
Likeliest: Plymouth Argyle win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 42%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Plymouth Argyle48%42%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Stockport County26%31%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 56% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 57% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Plymouth Argyle
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Aug 10 · v Exeter City (H)2-0
- May 2 · at Northampton Town (A)3-2
- Apr 25 · v Port Vale (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Bradford City (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)3-1
Stockport County
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Aug 8 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)1-1
- May 24 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)1-4
- May 13 · v Stevenage (H)2-0
- May 9 · at Stevenage (A)1-0
- May 2 · at Barnsley (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Plymouth Argyle | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.