Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:30 · Pogoń Szczecin vs MKS Korona Kielce
Likeliest: Pogoń Szczecin win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pogoń Szczecin41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
MKS Korona Kielce29%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pogoń Szczecin
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 20 · at Piast Gliwice (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Wieczysta Kraków (H)2-0
- Sep 7 · v Wisła Płock (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Zagłębie Lubin (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · v Wisła Kraków (H)2-2
MKS Korona Kielce
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Raków Częstochowa (H)3-2
- Sep 15 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Śląsk Wrocław (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Wisła Kraków (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Wisła Płock (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Pogoń Szczecin | MKS Korona Kielce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.