Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 15:30 · Pogoń Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom
Likeliest: Pogoń Szczecin win · 54%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pogoń Szczecin54%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%25%0
OursMarket
Radomiak Radom22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pogoń Szczecin
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at GKS Katowice (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · v MKS Korona Kielce (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Piast Gliwice (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Wieczysta Kraków (H)2-0
- Sep 7 · v Wisła Płock (H)1-1
Radomiak Radom
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 19 · at Wisła Płock (A)0-1
- Oct 12 · v Motor Lublin (H)2-3
- Sep 20 · at Lech Poznań (A)1-5
- Sep 14 · v Piast Gliwice (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · at Widzew Łódź (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Pogoń Szczecin | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.