K League 1 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 18 · 07:30 · Pohang Steelers vs FC Anyang
Likeliest: Pohang Steelers win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pohang Steelers47%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
FC Anyang25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pohang Steelers
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 13 · v Johor Darul Ta'zim (H)0-2
- Oct 9 · at Incheon United (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v FC Seoul (H)2-1
- Sep 15 · at Beijing Guoan (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)2-2
FC Anyang
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Ulsan HD (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Gwangju FC (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)2-3
- Sep 6 · v Gangwon FC (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Pohang Steelers | FC Anyang |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 3-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.