AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Oct 13 · 10:00 · Pohang Steelers vs Johor Darul Ta'zim
Likeliest: Johor Darul Ta'zim win · 43%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Pohang Steelers28%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Johor Darul Ta'zim43%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 59% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Pohang Steelers
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 9 · at Incheon United (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v FC Seoul (H)2-1
- Sep 15 · at Beijing Guoan (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)2-2
- Sep 9 · v Gimcheon Sangmu FC (H)0-0
Johor Darul Ta'zim
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 15 · v Buriram United (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · v Negeri Sembilan (H)3-0
- Sep 4 · v Brunei DPMM FC (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · v Immigration FC (H)7-0
- Aug 26 · v Kelantan Red Warrior FC (H)9-0
| Last 10 games | Pohang Steelers | Johor Darul Ta'zim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 2-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.