Premier League (Ukraine) · Fri, Sep 18 · 12:30 · Polissya Zhytomyr vs FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Likeliest: Polissya Zhytomyr win · 71%
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Polissya Zhytomyr71%69%+2
OursMarket
Draw17%19%−2
OursMarket
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih11%12%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 48% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 88% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 31% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 86% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Polissya Zhytomyr
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 13 · v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv (H)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Kudrivka (H)5-1
- Aug 29 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)2-0
- Aug 17 · v Zoria Luhansk (H)1-2
- Aug 10 · v Metalist 1925 (H)3-1
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 5 · v Kolos Kovalivka (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at Chornomorets Odesa (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv (H)1-1
- Aug 9 · at Zoria Luhansk (A)3-1
- Aug 1 · v Karpaty Lviv (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | Polissya Zhytomyr | FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 1-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.