Premier Division (South Africa) · Sat, Sep 12 · 13:00 · Polokwane City vs Kaizer Chiefs
Likeliest: Kaizer Chiefs win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Polokwane City25%27%−3
OursMarket
Draw34%32%+2
OursMarket
Kaizer Chiefs41%41%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 31% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | 39% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 68% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 40% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Polokwane City
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 4 · at Marumo Gallants FC (A)2-2
- Aug 26 · v Milford FC (H)0-0
- Aug 15 · at Sekhukhune United (A)0-2
- Aug 11 · v Stellenbosch (H)3-3
- Aug 2 · at Richards Bay FC (A)2-1
Kaizer Chiefs
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Sep 6 · v Siwelele FC (H)3-2
- Aug 26 · at Richards Bay FC (A)2-2
- Aug 15 · v Mamelodi Sundowns (H)1-1
- Aug 12 · v Sekhukhune United (H)2-0
- Aug 1 · at Kruger United (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Polokwane City | Kaizer Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-6-3 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.