Serie B (Brazil) · Fri, Oct 16 · 22:30 · Ponte Preta vs Atlético Goianiense
Likeliest: Atlético Goianiense win · 74%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 50% for both teams to score. The market says 39%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ponte Preta7%11%−4
OursMarket
Draw19%19%0
OursMarket
Atlético Goianiense74%70%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 39% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 26% | 30% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 93% | 89% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 8% | 13% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ponte Preta
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 12 · at Novorizontino (A)1-5
- Oct 7 · v Juventude (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Cuiabá (A)0-2
- Sep 29 · at Botafogo-SP (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v CRB (H)1-0
Atlético Goianiense
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Sport Recife (H)1-1
- Oct 7 · at CRB (A)1-3
- Oct 3 · v América Mineiro (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Goiás (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · at São Bernardo (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Ponte Preta | Atlético Goianiense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-0-9 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-7 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.