Serie B (Brazil) · Sat, Oct 24 · 21:30 · Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza
Likeliest: Fortaleza win · 78%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 50% for both teams to score. The market says 41%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ponte Preta5%9%−4
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Fortaleza78%73%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 41% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 22% | 27% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 95% | 91% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 6% | 11% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ponte Preta
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 16 · v Atlético Goianiense (H)1-1
- Oct 12 · at Novorizontino (A)1-5
- Oct 7 · v Juventude (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Cuiabá (A)0-2
- Sep 29 · at Botafogo-SP (A)0-2
Fortaleza
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 16 · at Sport Recife (A)2-0
- Oct 12 · v CRB (H)2-2
- Oct 7 · at América Mineiro (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · v Náutico (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · v Athletic Club (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Ponte Preta | Fortaleza |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 5-5-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.