AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Nov 3 · 12:15 · Port FC vs Beijing Guoan
Likeliest: Beijing Guoan win · 59%
Likely scores: 1–2 14% · 1–1 9% · 0–1 8%
A tight one: we make it 59% for the away win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Port FC18%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+1
OursMarket
Beijing Guoan59%56%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 24% | 28% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Port FC
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 27 · at Johor Darul Ta'zim (A)0-3
- Oct 24 · v Rayong FC (H)4-1
- Oct 18 · at True Bangkok United (A)2-0
- Oct 14 · at Kashiwa Reysol (A)1-5
- Oct 11 · v Pattani FC (H)3-2
Beijing Guoan
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 27 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)2-2
- Oct 24 · at Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (A)4-3
- Oct 18 · v Qingdao West Coast (H)1-0
- Oct 13 · at Buriram United (A)1-0
- Oct 9 · at Qingdao Hainiu (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Port FC | Beijing Guoan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 6-4-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.