AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Wed, Sep 16 · 12:15 · Port FC vs Vissel Kobe
Likeliest: Vissel Kobe win · 58%
We make it 52% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Port FC17%22%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Vissel Kobe58%53%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 53% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 42% | 47% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 78% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 29% | −7 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Port FC
LossLossDrawWin
- Sep 11 · v Lamphun Warrior (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Rasisalai United (A)0-0
- Feb 20 · at Jeonbuk Motors (A)0-1
- Feb 13 · v Jeonbuk Motors (H)0-4
Vissel Kobe
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 11 · v Kashima Antlers (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · v V-Varen Nagasaki (H)3-1
- Sep 2 · at Tokyo Verdy (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Cerezo Osaka (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · at Yokohama F. Marinos (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Port FC | Vissel Kobe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 40% |
| Both teams scored | — | 30% |
| Clean sheets | — | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.