League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Port Vale vs Chesterfield
Likeliest: Chesterfield win · 42%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Port Vale31%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+2
OursMarket
Chesterfield42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Port Vale
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Grimsby Town (H)1-0
- Oct 6 · v Mansfield Town (H)2-0
- Sep 22 · at Chesterfield (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Walsall (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Exeter City (H)1-0
Chesterfield
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Crawley Town (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Tranmere Rovers (H)4-2
- Sep 26 · at Cheltenham Town (A)1-2
- Sep 22 · v Port Vale (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v York City (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Port Vale | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.