League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Port Vale vs Grimsby Town
Likeliest: Port Vale win · 35%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 35% for the home win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Port Vale35%37%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+2
OursMarket
Grimsby Town35%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Port Vale
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 6 · v Mansfield Town (H)2-0
- Sep 22 · at Chesterfield (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Walsall (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Exeter City (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Salford City (A)0-1
Grimsby Town
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 6 · v Burton Albion (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Shrewsbury Town (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Newport County (A)1-2
- Sep 22 · at Notts County (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Crawley Town (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Port Vale | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.