League One (England) · Sat, May 2 · 14:00 · Port Vale vs Lincoln City
Likeliest: Lincoln City win · 66%
A 66% away win. The market says 56%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Port Vale15%21%−6
OursMarket
Draw20%23%−3
OursMarket
Lincoln City66%56%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 34% | 44% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 79% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 18% | 27% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Port Vale
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Apr 28 · at Stockport County (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)1-2
- Apr 22 · at Cardiff City (A)0-1
- Apr 19 · v Wigan Athletic (H)0-0
- Apr 16 · at Peterborough United (A)3-1
Lincoln City
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Apr 25 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)4-3
- Apr 21 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)2-0
- Apr 18 · at Stevenage (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · v Leyton Orient (H)2-1
- Apr 6 · at Reading (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Port Vale | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 7-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.