Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:00 · Port Vale vs Mansfield Town
Likeliest: Mansfield Town win · 43%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 67% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Port Vale31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Mansfield Town43%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 58% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Port Vale
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 22 · at Chesterfield (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Walsall (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Exeter City (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Salford City (A)0-1
- Sep 1 · at Swindon Town (A)1-3
Mansfield Town
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · at Burton Albion (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Huddersfield Town (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Bradford City (A)0-1
- Sep 2 · at Reading (A)0-5
- Aug 30 · v Luton Town (H)5-2
| Last 10 games | Port Vale | Mansfield Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.